Steel market price forecast on December 31

Rebar: On December 310, the average price of 20mm grade 3 rebar in major cities across the country was 4,359 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The snail volatility became stronger yesterday, and the decline in the price of construction steel in most areas in the country narrowed in the morning. Among them, prices in East China, South China, and Northeast China gradually stabilized. At present, as the New Year's Day holiday approaches, coupled with the colder weather, the demand for steel used in downstream projects has gradually weakened, and the market mentality is becoming more cautious. It is expected that domestic construction steel prices may be adjusted within a narrow range in the short term.

Hot-rolled coils: On December 30, the average price of 4.75 hot-rolled coils in major cities across the country was 4581 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Yesterday, the spot market’s early quotations fell. After the decline, the low-level transactions were better, and the high-level transactions were weak. In the intraday market, there was speculative demand for low-price receipts. However, market merchants were reluctant to sell too low. Prices have continued to fall, but the fundamentals of the entire industry have not changed much. I said before that the short-term bearish logic is mainly due to seasonal retreat of demand and inventory turning point, but the current accumulation time point is later than last year. In the near term, it is mainly due to a poor market mentality and a decline in sentiment, but in the long run, the fundamentals of the entire industry are still improving for a long time. On the whole, it is expected that today's hot-rolled coil prices are weak and fluctuating.

Coke: On December 30, the coke market temporarily stabilized, and the eleventh round of the increase was fully implemented. On the supply side, the elimination of outdated production capacity in mainstream regions and the strict implementation of environmental protection and production restriction policies, the coke market supply is still tight. The current coke enterprises’ delivery situation is good, and the coke inventory in the plant continues to decline; on the demand side, the steel mills have started to maintain high and stable operations. The coke inventory in the plant is reasonably low in many places, and the arrival volume may improve compared with the previous period. Some steel mills with low coke inventory mostly rely on active replenishment. On the whole, with the high demand for coke from steel mills and the price and quantity of coke in the coke market, the price of coke is strongly supported. It is expected that the coke market will maintain a steady and strong operation in the short term.